资本市场开放与企业创新——基于沪深港通交易制度的准自然实验

资本市场改革能否有效促进实体经济发展是当前中国经济发展面临的重大挑战。基于企业创新研究视角，以沪深港通交易制度作为外生事件，采用多时点双重差分模型(DID)系统考察了我国资本市场开放对公司创新的影响及内在作用机理。研究发现，沪深港通交易制度实施显著提升了标的公司创新绩效，表现为专利产出增加，且该现象在管理层持股比例高、融资约束强的样本中较为显著，表明沪深港通制度通过提升管理层创新意愿与提高企业创新能力两大途径提升创新绩效。进一步分析发现，资本市场开放对企业创新的正向影响在信息透明度低、沪深港通交易活跃股以及法制环境不完善样本中更显著。上述结论不仅拓展了企业创新影响因素研究，也为实施沪深港通交易制度带来的经济影响提供了来自微观公司层面的经验证据，亦为后续完善该项制度提供了参考与借鉴。     

Earnings management strategies for meeting or beating expectations

In this study, we dispel several popular notions regarding the meeting or beating expectations/thresholds (MBE) phenomenon that permeates the research design of many empirical papers. First, MBE is not unequivocally associated with aggressive earnings management. Second, MBE does not necessarily obfuscate the truth. Third, MBE may be consistent with the well-documented reporting strategy of smoothing. Specifically, we characterize the reporting strategy of firms that engage in MBE in a two-period game. Some firms value MBE in the first period more than in the second (short-run firms), and other firms are less concerned with missing a threshold in the first period but must meet or beat expectations in the second (long-run firms). The analysis yields additional insights: we also show that MBE, by a small amount, is driven by the demand for a truth-revealing report, since the extremely small margin is designed to vary with the truth. In addition, MBE explains the richness of the menu of reporting strategies (“taking a bath,” “cookie-jar reserve,” and marginal threshold beating). Moreover, MBE is good news when the firm is a long-run MBE firm because it signals that the firm will also meet or beat expectations in the future. Finally, MBE has a favorable economic effect, as it induces boards of directors to incentivize managers to expend more effort.     

“一带一路”倡议能否抑制实体企业“脱实向虚”

实体经济"脱实向虚"的行为对经济高质量发展形成了严重阻碍。以"一带一路"倡议的提出为准自然实验，运用双重差分法考察"一带一路"倡议对企业"脱实向虚"行为的影响及作用路径。研究发现，"一带一路"倡议的实施显著降低了企业金融化行为，即"一带一路"倡议抑制了企业"脱实向虚"，在进行一系列稳健性检验后，上述结论仍然成立。作用机制研究表明，"一带一路"倡议不仅通过缓解企业的融资约束降低企业"脱实向虚"行为，还能通过提升企业实体利润率降低企业"脱实向虚"行为。进一步研究发现，"一带一路"倡议能够显著提升企业金融资产收益。异质性研究发现，"一带一路"倡议显著降低了国有企业和民营企业的"脱实向虚"行为，而对外资及其他企业的影响不显著。     

Advancing the evidence base for public policies impacting on dietary behaviour,physical activity and sedentary behaviour in Europe: The Policy Evaluation Network promoting a multidisciplinary approach

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of global mortality. As the social and economic costs of NCDs have escalated, action is needed to tackle important causes of many NCD’s: low physical activity levels and unhealthy dietary behaviours. As these behaviours are driven by upstream factors, successful policy interventions are required that encourage healthy dietary behaviours, improve physical activity levels and reduce sedentary behaviours of entire populations. However, to date, no systematic research on the implementation and evaluation of policy interventions related to these health behaviours has been conducted across Europe. Consequently, no information on the merit, gaps, worth or utility of cross-European policy interventions is available, and no guidance or recommendations on how to enhance this knowledge across European countries exists. As part of the Joint Programming Initiative “A Healthy Diet for a Healthy Life” (JPI HDHL), 28 research institutes from seven European countries and New Zealand have combined their expertise to form the Policy Evaluation Network (PEN). PEN’s aim is to advance tools to identify, evaluate, implement and benchmark policies designed to directly or indirectly target dietary behaviours, physical activity, and sedentary behaviour in Europe, as well as to understand how these policies increase or decrease health inequalities. Using well-defined evaluation principles and methods, PEN will examine the content, implementation and impact of policies addressing dietary behaviour, physical activity levels and sedentary behaviour across Europe. It will realise the first steps in a bespoke health policy monitoring and surveillance system for Europe, and refine our knowledge of appropriate research designs and methods for the quantification of policy impact. It will contribute to our understanding of how to achieve successful transnational policy implementation and monitoring of these policies in different cultural, demographic or socioeconomic settings. PEN will consider equity and diversity aspects to ensure that policy actions are inclusive and culturally sensitive. Finally, based on three policy cases, PEN will illustrate how best to evaluate the implementation and impact of such policies in order to yield healthy diets and activity patterns that result in healthier lives for all European citizens.     

Reform and opening up in the new era: China trade policy review

This paper reviews the major changes in China's trade policies in the last few years. During this period, the adjustment of trade policies has developed in the following ways: first, the establishment of free trade zones, which emphasises the importance of advanced systems rather than preferential policies; second, putting forward the “Belt & Road” Initiative, which indicates China's new stage of development from “bringing in” to “going out”; third, holding import expos, which marks an era when China's foreign trade development has shifted from focusing on exports only to focusing on both exports and imports; fourth, reducing entry barriers of foreign capital, which demonstrates that the policy framework for FDI has gradually changed from a positive list to a negative list; fifth, promoting trade negotiations, which reflects that China has actively participated in bilateral, regional and multilateral trade talks; and finally, building up new experimental fields of reform and opening up, which shows evidence that a new generation of special economic zones is emerging.     

基于“三生空间”视角的城市资源环境承载力研究——以山东省青岛市为例

新型城镇化的重点在于人的城镇化,处理好城镇化进程中与人口要素相关的“三生空间”问题,有助于提高以人为核心的新型城镇化的发展质量。针对青岛市这一典型区域,基于可能—满意度测算方法,结合人地关系、资源禀赋与可持续发展理论,对青岛市当前资源环境承载力和未来发展趋势进行评价和预测,得出如下结论:青岛市自然资源尤其是水资源已接近本地资源潜力极限,资源承载力亟需进一步提升;青岛市经济水平承载力最大,当前及未来都不对人口承载构成威胁,应重点关注自然资源与社会资源,生态环境次之。建议应以城市资源环境承载力为蓝本,科学推进城镇化进程。     

网络时代的新组织形成与“四维”形式研究

网络时代下,新的组织现象和组织形式不断涌现,有必要通过对新组织形成的动因、遵循的基本导向、新组织的各种形式等问题综合剖析以揭示新组织的价值创造过程及其本质。国内外近50年来关于新组织的研究提出,以互联网为核心的计算机通信技术带来的技术变革、认知转变和企业应变催生了新组织的出现;新组织的形成遵循知识创造、协作创新和角色重构三个基本导向;新组织形式的“相对新颖性”包括新结构、新主体、新形态和新要素四个方面,构成新组织的“四维”形式。新组织的价值创造过程本质上是由技术变革引发组织形式变化,进而导致组织能力提高形成的。对比科层组织与新组织的组织范式以及各种形式发现,利用新组织形式的多样、灵活、非理性特征对科层制组织架构进行适时调整,是科层组织演化、避免科层陷阱的重要方式。     

The Renminbi as a Trading Currency: Evidence from Selected Countries Participating in the Belt and Road Initiative

This paper investigates the effects of the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate on trade prices and volumes in selected Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries in comparison with the effects of the US dollar. The stylized facts show that the RMB is underused in bilateral trade with selected BRI countries where intermediate goods dominate. By estimating the level of exchange rate pass‐through and trade volume elasticity, we find that the RMB is significantly correlated with the volume of imports in the sample countries, predicted by the producer currency pricing (PCP) paradigm. We also regroup intermediate and final goods between China and the BRI countries. The evidence shows that dollar fluctuation affects export volumes, reflecting the role of the US as a final goods destination, whereas the RMB exerts a significant impact on the volume of intermediate goods imported from China to the sample countries due to China's important position in global value chains.     

新工业革命背景下多元智能组织研究——以GE和海尔为案例

新工业革命背景下组织需要从一元集权制向多元治理转变,本文通过对通用电气公司(GE)和海尔的跨案例研究发现组织从一元集权制向多元治理转变的“四反”演进路径。其中,“反集权”的本质是组织权利分化,组织演进逻辑是从“垂直”到“水平”,以构建赋权赋能为核心的扁平网络化组织。“反边界”的本质是组织边界扩张,组织演进逻辑是从“有形”到“无形”,以构建动态无边界的虚拟组织。“反分工”的本质是组织流程再造,组织演进逻辑是从“分散”到“整合”,以构建人机融合智能型组织。“反范式”的本质是管理范式转变,组织演进逻辑是从“有序”到“无序”,以构建平台为主要特征的后现代管理范式。进一步对“四反”路径进行整合分析,构建了基于“四反”的多元智能组织理论模型,该模型以后现代管理哲学为理论基础,符合新工业革命背景下组织发展的“与时俱进”的时代特征,将引领未来的组织发展方向。     

European versus American Perspectives on the Belt and Road Initiative

China has started to deploy its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the European Union (EU), and the EU in turn has regional and global interests that intersect with the BRI's scope. Subject to future adjustments of China's BRI strategy, the initiative's potential contribution to the EU requirements for infrastructure development could be significant, even though its modalities in the EU are inevitably different from those in countries that are poorer or have more difficult financial market access. The EU's attitude to the BRI, however, has not yet fully coalesced. Despite superficial similarities in public discourses, the EU has a profoundly distinct perspective from that of the US on the BRI, and more generally on the rise of China and its growing global influence. For the EU, the BRI generates challenges but also potential benefits. The EU should improve its ability to welcome sensible BRI projects, including through the adoption of greater reform of screening frameworks for foreign direct investment. More generally, the EU should enhance its ability to define policies independent of the US on China and the challenges resulting from China's rise. China should also make further efforts to foster a constructive relationship with the EU.